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La « température à la surface de la Terre » est la température de l’air mesurée à la surface de la Terre.
Dans cette sous-section, les chiffres entre crochets [] indiquent la fourchette dans laquelle le paramètre indiqué se situe très probablement (« very likely ») (avec une probabilité > 90 %).
La période 1850–1900 est globalement assimilée à la période « préindustrielle », car, selon les connaissances actuelles, elle était aussi chaude que la période 1750–1850 (avant la « révolution industrielle »), mais dispose d’une base de données beaucoup plus complète. Pour la Suisse, on utilise la période 1871–1900, car les mesures régulières n’ont commencé qu’à partir de 1864 environ. MétéoSuisse utilise une courbe de tendance climatique flexible selon Scherrer et al. (2024)2 pour déterminer le réchauffement déjà survenu. Celui-ci s’élève à +2,9 °C en 2024 par rapport à la moyenne de 1871–1900. Pour une comparaison entre le monde, l’Europe et la Suisse, voir fig. 2.
Cette valeur est basée sur les données ERA5 et résulte de la différence entre les moyennes des périodes 2015–2024 et 1980–1990.7
Pour calculer les températures moyennes, la Suisse utilise la moyenne mobile, qui est déterminée à l’aide d’une régression linéaire locale (LOESS). Alors que, pour des raisons de comparabilité, les moyennes sur dix ans sont également indiquées pour la Suisse dans la figure 2 (2,8 °C), le réchauffement calculé pour la Suisse à l’aide de la moyenne climatique mobile est de 2,9 °C en 2024. Cette méthode remplace de plus en plus les estimations linéaires traditionnelles des tendances et les moyennes mobiles, car elle permet de bien représenter les évolutions non linéaires des tendances climatiques.
Le lagopède alpin est considéré comme un exemple typique, car il est fortement lié aux habitats froids de haute montagne, n’a que peu de possibilités de se propager et subit une pression supplémentaire due à l’avancée d’espèces très compétitives provenant de zones plus basses.
Même si le moustique tigre ne transmet actuellement aucune infection, sa propagation croissante augmente le risque que des maladies transmises par ce moustique, telles que le virus Zika, la dengue, le chikungunya ou le paludisme, puissent se propager en Suisse.
La méthode utilisée pour le calcul suit le modèle de risque du GIEC: danger × exposition × vulnérabilité. L’étude de cas suisse combine des prévisions de chaleur à haute résolution (danger), l’intensité du travail sous la chaleur (exposition) et la baisse de performance sous la chaleur (vulnérabilité).
La réduction des émissions du deuxième gaz à effet de serre le plus important, le méthane, est particulièrement importante. Contrairement au CO2, le méthane se dégrade relativement rapidement dans l’atmosphère, mais il est responsable d’environ un tiers du réchauffement causé par l’homme en raison de son fort effet de réchauffement et de ses émissions élevées. Une réduction rapide et significative des émissions de méthane entraîne une diminution de la concentration atmosphérique et de l’effet de réchauffement. Cela augmenterait le budget carbone résiduel. La réduction des autres gaz à effet de serre est également importante pour atteindre les objectifs climatiques, mais elle est moins prioritaire en raison de son impact global nettement moindre par rapport au CO2 et au méthane.
L’augmentation causée par les humains de la température mondiale de 1,24 °C [1,11–1,35 °C], mentionnée au chapitre 1.1.1, se réfère à la valeur moyenne de la décennie 2015–2024. L’estimation de 1,36 °C mentionnée ici s’applique à l’année 2024 et correspond à l’évolution des températures observées (extrapolée) et lissée.
Dans le cas d’émissions nettes négatives de CO2, les activités humaines retirent plus de CO2 de l’atmosphère qu’elles n’en émettent. Pour ce faire, elles ont recours à des méthodes chimiques ou biologiques de capture du CO2 (Carbon Dioxide Removal, CDR). De nombreuses questions restent toutefois en suspens concernant les possibilités techniques, les potentiels réalistes et les coûts.
Les objectifs de réduction des émissions fixés dans le cadre de l’Accord de Paris sont appelés « contributions déterminées au niveau national » (NDC). Ils désignent les contributions quantitatives et qualitatives définies par chaque État partie pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et s’adapter au changement climatique. Elles constituent un élément central de l’approche bottom-up de l’accord et reflètent la responsabilité, la capacité et l’ambition nationales respectives. Elles sont actualisées tous les cinq ans et, idéalement, revues à la hausse.
Réchauffement composé du réchauffement de 1,9 °C (moyenne de 1991–2020) et du réchauffement prévu en été après cette période dans le Plateau (+3,2 °C) et dans les Alpes (+4,1 °C).
Les estimations sont réalisées d’une part à l’aide de modèles d’équilibre qui simulent l’économie et considèrent les effets du changement climatique comme une perturbation des différents secteurs de production, et d’autre part à l’aide d’approches empiriques qui analysent l’impact des phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes sur la croissance économique dans le passé et extrapolent ces effets pour différents scénarios climatiques futurs.
La Commission européenne a prévu, pour l’objectif intermédiaire de 2040, la possibilité de comptabiliser les réductions de CO2 à l’étranger, mais la part possible dans la réduction totale n’est que de 3 % et non de 33 % comme en Suisse.
Produits concernés: aluminium, ciment, électricité, engrais, hydrogène, fer et acier
Conception des politiques (Policy Design): conception d’instruments et de mesures politiques efficaces pour atteindre les objectifs politiques ; approche intégrée des politiques (Policy Packaging): coordination et regroupement de différentes mesures en une approche globale cohérente.
Les données relatives aux émissions dans le secteur de la santé présentées dans ce chapitre sont basées sur les émissions de scope 1 à 3 (voir également l’encadré 1).
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